Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."
Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.
We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.
Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Popular Stories
Apple will introduce new iPad Pro and iPad Air models in early May, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Gurman previously suggested the new iPads would come out in March, and then April, but the timeline has been pushed back once again. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Apple is working on updates to both the iPad Pro and iPad Air models. The iPad Pro models will...
In November, Apple announced that the iPhone would support the cross-platform messaging standard RCS (Rich Communication Services) in the Messages app starting "later" in 2024, and Google has now revealed a more narrow timeframe. In a since-deleted section of the revamped Google Messages web page, spotted by 9to5Google, Google said that Apple would be adopting RCS on the iPhone in the "fall...
Thieves in Montreal, Canada have been using Apple's AirTags to facilitate vehicle theft, according to a report from Vermont news sites WCAX and NBC5 (via 9to5Mac). Police officers in Burlington, Vermont have issued a warning about AirTags for drivers who recently visited Canada. Two Burlington residents found Apple AirTags in their vehicles after returning from trips to Montreal, and these...
Apple's WWDC 2024 dates have been announced, giving us timing for the unveiling of the company's next round of major operating system updates and likely some other announcements. This week also saw some disappointing news on the iPad front, with update timing for the iPad Pro and iPad Air pushed back from previous rumors. We did hear some new tidbits about what might be coming in iOS 18 and...
Photos of the first iPhone 16 cases have been shared online, offering another preview of the rumored new vertical rear camera arrangement on the standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus. Image credit: Accessory leaker Sonny Dickson Over the last few months, Apple has been experimenting with different camera bump designs for the standard iPhone 16 models, all of which have featured a vertical ...
A $3 third-party app can now record spatial video on iPhone 15 Pro models in a higher resolution than Apple's very own Camera app. Thanks to an update first spotted by UploadVR, Spatialify can now record spatial videos with HDR in 1080p at 60fps or in 4K at 30fps. In comparison, Apple's native Camera app is limited to recording spatial video in 1080p at 30fps. Shortly after Apple's Vision ...
Top Rated Comments
Other companies have since reported weakness in China as well (Intel, Samsung). Apple was in front of this and is working on fixing the issues in China.
Apple is going to report record EPS for Q12019 and will execute in FY2019, as usual. I believe 160M iPhone sales in 2019 is totally ridiculous. They did 217M last year, so unit sales just are not going to drop that quickly. That would indicate a 26% decline in iPhone sales.
Remember, they are going to post $84B in sales in 90 days versus $88B last year, a 5% impcat. A significant drop in iPhone sales would have an even larger impact, more like the 26% above.
[doublepost=1548614404][/doublepost]Nice speculation. How about some facts to back that up?
[doublepost=1548614566][/doublepost]The majority of people have no clue what kind of chip is in their iPhone.